By Amitendu Palit,
The recent elections to the European Parliament reflect a distinct change in the mood of the people across the continent.
The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by incumbent European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, won the most seats to be the single largest party. Together with the Socialists and Democrats party and other allies like the Renew and the Greens, it should have the majority for running the parliament. However, there would be some changes impacting policy focus and decision-making.
The first notable change comes from a stronger presence of the far-right political parties in the parliament. Two prominent right-wing blocs — the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) — have enhanced their strengths. Between the ECR and ID, the latter is “farther” right. The two blocs together represent the more orthodox right-wing presence in the parliament and will be significant in influencing decisions.
The second significant change will be from what the election results mean for major members of the European Union (EU). This is where a palpable shift in domestic political balances of power in favour of the far right is becoming visible.
Results from the three largest EU member states — Germany, France, and Italy, all members of the rich and powerful G7 — demonstrate the shift. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) — a member of the ID coalition and among the most mainstream far-right political parties in Germany — performed remarkably well in the German elections for the EU parliament. It won 16% of the total votes to become the second largest party from Germany. Furthermore, it won more votes than the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz’s Social Democratic Party.
France experienced a bullish rise of the far right. The ID coalition, led by Marie Le Pen’s National Rally, won more than a third of the total votes to become the largest party. It got more than double the votes won by French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party.
While Germany and France witnessed resurgences of the far right, Italy saw its consolidation. The conservative ECR led the show with its main constituent, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, winning the largest votes, nearly a third of the total. Among the premiers of Germany, France, and Italy, only PM Meloni could draw greater political strength and legitimacy from the results.
The results may not mean an overwhelming surge for the far right. But they reflect its growing popularity and greater acceptance. The chances of this trend strengthening further across Europe will depend on whether the hardline right parties come to power in national assemblies. The upcoming French elections will be a major test in this regard, as will be the Austrian elections that will follow soon.
A more influential far right in European politics and decision-making will impact approaches adopted by the European Commission and European countries to some policy issues. These, in turn, can sway Europe’s engagement with other countries, including India.
Immigration is clearly going to be one of the major issues. The far right in Europe has traditionally been Eurosceptic. The scepticism includes a critical view of migrants living and working in Europe and the civil and economic rights that they enjoy. The critical outlook might get more entrenched in EU’s policymaking space, including the way the EU engages with major external partners, particularly labour-exporting countries like India.
India and the EU are at an advanced stage of finalising a comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). The FTA has provisions on mobility of labour. It remains to be seen whether the new political dynamics in Europe introduces new complications on the subject. The apprehensions in this regard arise from the experience of the India-UK FTA. The FTA, which was ready to be signed and concluded almost two years ago, is yet to be finished. A change of leadership in the UK and hardline views on immigration and foreign labour have blocked the FTA with no clarity on when it will be a done deal.
The other area where EU policymaking is likely to be impacted by a rejuvenated far right is environment. Greens will have a lower presence in the current parliament. Most far-right parties, traditionally, have not been great champions of action on environment.
Over the last couple of years, the EU has institutionalised multiple landmark climate legislations that have implications for its trade with India and other countries. These include the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), actions against deforestation in external partners, and subsidies harmful to the climate.
There is a possibility that climate action might not remain the primary factor in determining the EU’s policies for trade with other countries. This doesn’t mean that the CBAM will disappear from the list of the EU’s border trade measures. But more ways of working around it can emerge, particularly since European fossil fuel-using industries such as automobiles can receive more political support than before. With “dirty” getting treated better, “clean” is bound to lose some shine.
India will need to be prepared for some changes in engaging with the EU’s economic agenda. These will arguably be a mixed bag: tighter on immigration, while being more accommodating on climate. Much of the eventual policy agenda will depend on the results of upcoming national elections in the EU. They will also depend on how much working support the EPP receives from other parties in the parliament. A deal-based support worked out by the EPP with the far-right parties might ensure that some policies might be persisted with.
The author is a senior research fellow and research lead (trade and economics) at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.
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